http://money.msn.com/bill-fleckenstein/post.aspx?post=6f26569b-6654-4f71-8bb6-6095a58da9dc

Bill Fleckenstein
Investors, it’s time to face the truth
Our markets have a recent history of missing important warnings. It’s no different now as investors deny the obvious and the economy stumbles along.
By Bill_Fleckenstein Fri 2:41 PM

Share
517

94

I have been in the investment business for more than 30 years now, so I have grown accustomed to seeing lunacy, naiveté and just plain stupidity more often than one would think possible, given that investing is supposed to be about being smart.

It seems extraordinarily obvious to me that the economy is, in essence, broken because of the stock and housing bubbles we have experienced, and that the Federal Reserve is trapped. It also seems clear that at some point we will have a funding crisis (bond yields will leap and/or the dollar will tank) due to excessive government borrowing. (Click here for more on this funding crisis.)

However, that’s not going to occur until certain attitudes shift, so I can see why this is taking some time to unfold. What I cannot understand is how folks don’t recognize the fact that, since the economy has been unable to create jobs for three years now, it isn’t going to start magically generating them now.

Nor do I understand why there is such denial about inflation. The everyday cost of living has been increasing steadily, and at an increasing rate. Just because house prices have collapsed and certain products that folks buy, especially those heavily laden with technology, are cheaper does not change the fact that we are experiencing inflation, and that the environment is really one of stagflation. It is obvious, as are the consequences.

Nevertheless, to a large degree in the investment community, Goldilocks rules.

Déjà eww

The mindset seemed familiar to me, and about a week ago I was thinking of past moments in time where the obvious was there for all to see but maddeningly few seemed to see it. What popped into my head was the spike in first payment defaults leading up to the housing crisis. When that started occurring, as early as August 2006, it spelled the end of the housing bubble (while at the same time proving it was bubble behavior, since people were missing their first payments).

I actually decided to search my subscription site, www.fleckensteincapital.com, for references to “first payment.” Lo and behold, one of the headlines that popped up was “Goldilocksters see oil prices as bullish, up or down,” which ran on Jan. 11, 2007 (that is, more than a year before Bear Stearns’ liquidity problems came to light). Here are some key excerpts:

“I wanted to share an email from my insider friend in the subprime arena, whom I’ve quoted so liberally. It’s sort of incongruous to read his thoughts on a day when subprime and other financials were going wild, but this (first payment defaults) is a problem that I guess won’t matter until the day it matters — and then boy is it going to matter.

“He wrote: ‘We had a loan that was FPD (first-payment default) on a home in So Cal. It is a very nice high-end town that had a section of new homes built, but it was in the low end of town. Normal homes sold for $1 million in value. In this new seven-home development, (homes) sold for $1.3 million to $1.5 million each. The homes you had to drive through to get to this place were worth $400,000 to $500,000. The market topped out, and now most of the seven homes are vacant — worth no more than $900,000. Thus, all the lenders are sitting on losses of $400,000 to $600,000. This is just one of many that are happening daily.’

“‘The commentary I am getting from field and legit brokers is that fraud is an out-of-control locomotive. Stated-income loans are now finished for all the unemployed people around. We will quickly see cash-out loans curtailed. This vicious cycle has yet to play out. We are in the second inning of the unwinding.’”

Note that I received that email on a day when subprime and other financial stock prices were rallying big time, the market completely oblivious to what lay ahead.

Selling yesterday’s news

Just as folks were late in figuring out the severity of the housing crisis, I think they still tend to be late in facing current realities. Case in point: For most of this week, it was as if markets in Europe and the U.S. had suddenly realized that the government in Greece was in disarray; that we were about to have a socialist running France; and that Spain, Portugal and Italy are each a teetering financial house of cards, even though none of that should be “news,” especially to supposedly sophisticated market participants.

In the old days, markets tended to discount events (that is, they reflected expected negative outcomes through lower asset prices, or vice versa). If that were still the case, markets should have declined into last weekend’s European elections as they anticipated the results, as well as other problems. But what we saw were markets that appeared not to have discounted the seemingly obvious news.

I have commented on this phenomenon a number of times over the past 10 years: that only after an important event happens (which was usually pretty obvious) does Mr. Market have a heart attack. I don’t really know why that is, although I think a lot of it has to do with how the government’s money printing has warped the markets by causing people to expect to be bailed out.

You can see a million trees and still not recognize the forest

Where our current path is taking us has been predictable for quite some time, and I think that continues to be the case. Unfortunately, we have elected officials who are completely incompetent, if not criminal, and the Fed is even worse. None of that is going to change until change is forced upon us (i.e., them) by a crisis. So while events seem to play out at a glacial pace, where we are headed couldn’t be clearer.

On the air

I participated in a rather timely interview with Eric King this week. Those who are interested can listen to it here.

In this article Mike Curtiss exposes a plot for the destruction of the USA.

God has a different plan for the church and evil men will not persevere. At the appointed time they will be defeated by the Lord and sent to the Lake of Fire for all of eternity.

Nando

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/feb2012/mikec21.htm

Mike Curtiss (1 Feb 2012)
“Welcome to Those Folks Stalking Geo. Soros (Lauren (31 Jan 2012)“

Hey Lauren,

         For the last 3 years, I have documented more than twenty-five articles, which list the most egregious crimes committed by Soros. Over three years, the most dangerous skeleton in Soros’ closet involve 501c3 corporations. At last count, there are forty independent 501c3 that have taken money for different pet project’s of Geo. Soros. Abortion, anarchy, homosex for sixth graders, mandatory inoculations, removal of all references to Christian, or Jewish holidays from the calendar. Soros, speaks of himself in the third person. These are a few of George Soros’ favorite things;

         One curious example for Soros, a Jew is J Street, a Jewish atheist organization, which has had one lone historic benefactor; Geo. Soros. J Street blames Israel for all the violence in the Middle East. J Street’s most recent public demonstration of anti-Semitism was it’s participation the Gaza Flotilla, which was sent to break the alleged ’blockade‘ of the Gaza Strip. Make no mistake, the Gaza Strip has no genuine shortage of foodstuffs, cars, gas, oil, or water. The world media would love to have you believe that the Palestinians are living in tents and widespread squalor. Do you wonder why we never see film of the huge shopping malls in Gaza?

                  

         The Gaza Strip’s alive and doing quite well thank you, living off generous donations primarily from the USA, oil sheik’s  and the EU. The only commodity they lack are sophisticated weapons that will help the Palestinians destroy Israel. Enter Geo. Soros and J Street, these ships claimed they were carrying baby formula. In reality, they where carrying anti-aircraft missiles, Chinese MANPADS similar to the US Stinger missile. They also needed effective anti-tank weapons like the Roland missile to kill either Merkevas, or US Abrams tanks. Geo. Soros also sent advanced timing and detonation equipment to make suicide bombers in Israel more lethal. When the nine ships of the Gaza Flotilla were later searched after the hand to hand fighting; they were found to be carrying tens of thousands of pounds of MANPADS, Rolands and sophisticated suicide bomb components made in Iran. These ships flew the United Nations flag as they travelled southeast toward Israel. Apparently, the flotilla thought by flying the UN Flag they could intimidate Israel and outsmart the Mossad. The balance of power would have changed dramatically overnight. Thank God, Our Lord never sleeps. He made sure that these weapons had no chance of arriving inside the Gaza Strip.

          The Occupy Wall Street movement was funded by Soros, either by direct donations, or through the donation of other Hedge Fund operators, or other Soros 501c3 organizations. This small community of multi-billionaires planned to cause a violent revolution last Fall. They successfully employed Barack Obama to increase many of the stressors upon the middle class here in America.They are struggling to come up with another Reichstag Fire incident, so that Barack Obama can impose Martial Law upon American. This Soros project has badly failed thus far, because the American people are not Russian peasants.

          Let’s see, so many crimes, so little time. Oh, the most recent attack upon the USA made by Soros upon America failed, because the American people said no to the Occupy Wall Street fringe group. Americans perform better under stress than our allies in Europe. Despite mega media coverage 24/7/365 only dirty druggies, street people, college students, ACORN community organizers, Union workers and the homeless turned out to protest a mixed message of drug addled complaints. Contrast the Occupy Movement with the Tea Party and the Glen Beck Rally in DC. Even without much coverage, real working American people turned out by the millions. They took their time and placed their bets upon any number of Conservative candidates, which will mean a repudiation of an enormous bloated Federal Government. American’s rejected Progressivism, Obamacare and the new Dictatorship. Very few people realize that Barack Obama and the Democrat Party snuck legislation into the latest ongoing Military Appropriation Bill, which removes our right to equal protection under the law, the writ of Habias corpis and every other Constitutional guarantee that American citizen’s once enjoyed.

           Our President has never submitted a annual budget. This might be construed as the behavior of an immature and disorganized individual. However, he warned us that his goal is to dramatically transform America. Producing a budget inhibits the President from taking advantage of frequently spontaneous events. No budget makes rule by one leader, a dictator possible. Obama through the crafty use of ‘Executive Orders’ is able to takeover the role traditionally reserved for the US Congress. Without a budget, Congress is forced to Rubber Stamp any increase in spending ceilings based upon the Presidents wishes and pet projects like Green Energy. In effect the Congress has been neutered. However, the American people are enraged by the irresponsible behavior of the Democrat Party a Barack Obama. We will win this election despite billions of dollars of illegal monies the Moslem world will once again pump into the upcoming US Presidential race. Even when the Justice Department, the FBI and the CIA will be deployed to steal this election; the American people will turn out the Obama Regime. The only wild card could be the Rapture, if it comes before the election Martial Law and a never ending Obama Dictatorship results. Should the Lord tarry, absent a Reichstag Fire and Martial Law, Obama can’t legally win re-election.

           Please pray for me my friends, I’m struggling to walk without quickly becoming exhausted. My chronic pain is somewhat better. I discovered that if I walk upstairs one rung at a time without bending my right knee, my right knee doesn’t hurt as badly at night. Many days I’m in soo much pain that I don’t want to get out of bed. It also causes such dark depression, I just want to come home Lord Jesus. I really want Jesus to come soon, because I don’t want to suffer any more. Some times, I want my life to end.

 

                                                                                                          Agape,

                                                                                                                   Mike Curtiss

Nando

Many books have been written linking the efforts of the quartet, to ram a forced peace to Israel and take away the land that God has given them as a fulfillment of His promises to the Patriarchs.

In this interview with Mr. David Brennan, the author of the book The Israel Omen II and I, and Mr. Gary Stearman of www.prophecyinthenews.com discuss this theme that should be aware to the Bible believing Christians of the world.

The role that Barack Hussein Obama plays in this conflict is devoted three chapters of his book. In my opinion the best events are yet to come.

Obama will in the future be forceful in bringing this 7 year covenant to fruition thus thrusting the world into the dreaded 7 year Tribulation.

Great destruction has followed the past attempts to enforce this false peace and by the patterns that have been brought out in the past we can surmise that America is in for very rough times ahead.

In the interview David expresses his opinion that if Obama is re-elected he will be the most anti Israel president ever elected. My opinion is that this man will bring about his plan before the election of this year, bringing the destruction that follows such a fact. In other words there will be no election this fall!!!!

Nando

Nando

GOOD POST JAY.

Nando

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/dec2011/jay1227-1.htm

Jay (27 Dec 2011)
“Iran Reaches Out To Iraq To Form Alliance After U.S Troop Withdraw!!! – Israel Gravely Concerned“

Israeli officials speculated that the exercise was not necessarily aimed at Israel, but against Iran, which has both Turkey and Egypt worried. Turkey, long a rival with Iran for leadership of the Islamic world, is concerned over recent Iranian threats against it. In recent weeks, Iranian officials have threatened Turkey with attack if the U.S. or Israel attempt to attack its nuclear facilities. Iran, the officials said, would attack the NATO missile shield. A report Sunday, for example, quoted Hussein Ibrahim, the vice president of the Iranian parliamentary national security and foreign policy panel, as saying that “it is Iran’s natural right to target the missile defense shield system in Turkey in case of an attack, and we will definitely resort to that.” Several days earlier, Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ aerospace division, said that “should we [Iran] be threatened, we will target NATO’s missile defense shield in Turkey and then hit our next targets.”

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/151055                                                                                                                                                                                                 Center For Disease Control (CDC) – “SWINE FLU IS BACK”

http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/israeli-archaeologists-uncover-first-artifact-confirming-written-record-of-temple-worship-1.403505                                                  Israeli Archaeologist Discover 1st Physical Evdence of Jewish Temple Worship – Small Coin Found With Inscription             ”Daka Le’Ya” Which Is Aramaic For the Saying “Pure For God”

Israeli archaeologists have uncovered the first archeological find to confirm written testimony of the ritual practices at the Jewish Temple in Jerusalem.

The team believes the tiny seal was put on objects designated to be used in the temple, and thus had to be ceremonially pure. In this vein, and in the spirit of Hanukkah, Jerusalem District archaeologist of the Israel Antiquities Authority, said: “It is written in the Talmud that the only cruse of oil that was discovered in the Temple after the victory of the Maccabees over the Greeks, “lay with the seal of the High Priest” – that is: the seal indicated that the oil is pure and can be used in the Temple. Remember, this cruse of oil was the basis for the miracle of Hanukkah that managed to keep the menorah lit for eight days”.

http://www.infowars.com/the-false-flags-that-stole-christmas/                                                                                                                                                                                              United States Government New World Order False Flag Terror Events That Stole Christmas

1. False Flag Shoe Bomber Dec 22,2001

2. False Flag 5 Arab Men Coming From Canada To Detonate Nuke In NYC Dec, 2002

3. False Flag Middle East Men Coming To Bomb Las Vegas During Christmas, Dec 2003

4. False Flag Indonisian Earthquake/Tsunami Over 200,000 Dead (Possibly Created by U.S Gov HAARP WEAPON) Dec 26,2004

5. False Flag  – Wyoming Refinery Detonation – Dec, 2005

6. False Flag – Terrorist Grenade Threat In Chicago Shopping Mall – Dec 2006

7. False Flag – Underwear Bomber Planted On Plane By CIA Agent - Christmas Day 2009

8. False Flag – Muslim Caught In Iraq Threatening To Blow Up America On Chritmas 2010 – Entire Country Threat Level Raised

and False Flag - Terrorist Planning To Blow Up Christmas Light Ceremony In Portland Oregon, 2010

http://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2011/12/22/u-s-headed-for-cyberwar-showdown-with-china-in-2012/                                                                                  U.S Headed For CyberWar Showdown With China In 2012!!!!!!

http://www.infowars.com/tsa-tampering-with-baked-goods-confiscated-slice-of-travelers-cake/

TSA - NEW WORLD ORDER  – POLICE STATE  – CONFISCATING CUP CAKES OVER CHRISTMAS -                                          TSA OPENING CAKES AND CHECKING FOR BOMBS…

http://www.mydesert.com/article/20111223/NEWS11/111223021/Air-Jordan-shoes-cause-riots-around-nation                                                                                                                         Violence and Gun Shootings Breaks Out Around the U.S Over Reto Sale Of Most Popular Air Jordan Shoe Ever!!!

IF THIS IS WHAT POPELE DO OVER NOT HAVING THE KIND OF SHOE THEY WANT IMAGINE WHAT THEY WILL DO WH

Nando

Today we celebrate Labor Day and while we are on a Holiday the Europeans had a very bad market day. Is tomorrow going to be a bad day for the USA market? Probably yes will see what happens.

Nando

http://www.raptureready.com/rapnews_db.php

European stock markets rocked by bank sector plunge
European stocks plunged on Monday, with Paris shedding 4.0 percent, as US legal action hit banks and added to pressures from the eurozone debt crisis and recession risks, traders said.

Nando

A friend sent me this video and I am passing it on the blog.

Nando

Mercer has provided a numerical link between the fall of the stock market and the blood moon lunar tetrads that came in the last 1000 years.

The coincidence may not have been that but by Divine design. Bear in mind that today is the most infamous day of the year for the Jewish nation as in the day in the past both Temples were destroyed and other tragedies came upon Israel.

Very good article Mercer and thanks.

Nando

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/aug2011/mercer89.htm

Mercer (9 Aug 2011)
“CURSED: S&P falls 6.66%“

Nando

A very interesting fact, between yesterday and today the DOW lost 777 points. Rounding to the whole numbers 265.87 is 265 and 512.76 is 512 which when added is 265 + 512 = 777.

Could this be caused by the Manipulators of the world government as a present to their chosen one Obama on his birthday?

Are they saying that this is similar to the 777 on Rosh Hashannah when the recession started?

Well time will tell and in the mean time lets us keep looking up for our redemption is nigh.

Nando

This article posted here is a sign of the pending economic crisis that is in the works. The political divisions are enormous and the two sides are wide apart in reaching a consensus. Is this the only problem with the economy, no only one of the many that can cause a very bad outcome.

Nando

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43046702/ns/politics-more_politics

JEWEL SAMAD  /  AFP – Getty Images

Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner testifies before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Financial Services and General Government on the FY 2012 Budget in Washington, DC, on April 5.

National Journal

• Share
• Print
• Font:
• +
• -

On Monday morning the Treasury Department auctioned off the last legally permissible U.S. government debt to the public. A $14,294,000,000,000 cap on borrowing is firmly in place, starting the clock toward potential default and turning up the heat on simmering fiscal negotiations in Washington.

While market participants did not expect Congress to raise the limit before it was met, which should preclude immediate economic consequences, the milestone moves the discussion of American default from theoretical to increasingly probable. Concerns about such a scenario could lead to turmoil in the markets, damaging economic recovery.

In a letter to Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., on Friday, Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned of a potential “double-dip recession” if investors lose confidence in the United States’ creditworthiness. Rising interest rates could freeze investment, cause runs on money-market funds, and lower the value of the dollar, threatening its status as the world’s reserve currency.

The Treasury Department will begin a series of “extraordinary” accounting measures designed to delay until Aug. 2 the messy clash between the spending priorities enacted by Congress and its refusal, so far, to allow them to be financed; without borrowing, the country would need to cut approximately $125 billion in spending each month.

1. Other political news of note
   1. Gingrich explains personal ‘mistakes,’ rejects charges of racism Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said Sunday that voters are entitled to ask questions about the “mistakes” he has made in his personal life but said he’s confident that many social conservatives will back him in his 2012 presidential bid.
   2. Trump not running for president in 2012
   3. Obama working to rebuild campaign army
   4. Updated 22 minutes ago 5/16/2011 6:43:36 PM +00:00 Emanuel sworn in as Chicago’s new mayor
   5. Gingrich walks back support of mandates

Story: McConnell sets terms for debt ceiling vote

On Sunday, House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., reiterated Republican demands for significant budget reforms and spending cuts in exchange for lifting the debt limit, but their refusal to consider tax changes is stymieing efforts to reach a deal. Vice President Joe Biden is leading congressional leaders in ongoing talks designed to reach a deficit reduction framework and the passage of the increase; those talks will continue on a staff level with Congress in recess this week.

Story: Obama tells Democrats to be flexible in budget talks

While details of the talks remain sketchy, lawmakers are attempting to reconcile competing budgets to find at least $1 trillion in deficit reduction over the coming years, largely through discretionary spending cuts, including at the Defense Department, and reductions in mandatory spending focused on agriculture subsidies and Medicaid. Democrats also want to close tax loopholes that subsidize the private sector, especially oil companies.

Both sides are interested in a budget enforcement mechanism, with Republicans advocating spending caps and the White House a more comprehensive debt-reduction fail-safe. Similarly, though the two parties have been intently focused on Medicare reform, their divergent approaches make an agreement unlikely. Despite warnings last week from the trustees of that program and Social Security that their financial future is in jeopardy, neither one is likely to be at the center of an agreement.

The stress around the debt ceiling is still centered largely within the Beltway, but pressure from businesses around the country will increase as Treasury draws down its final reserves, especially if markets start to tighten around fears that a deal will not emerge. Last week, a coalition of business groups led by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the Financial Services Forum, and the Business Roundtable wrote to lawmakers urging them to reach agreement, and their lobbying will only become more vociferous as talks wear on.

Story: GOP seeks leverage in talks over debt ceiling hike

Public opinion complicates the politics of the debate further: While the business community is united with the economic experts in fearing the impact of a failure to raise the limit, the Gallup polling organization reports that 47 percent of the public believe their member of Congress should vote against raising the ceiling. Only 19 percent say their representative should support an increase.

Story: Geithner gives Congress more time on debt limit

Those numbers might change if the public felt the tangible costs of a seemingly abstract default. In a report released on Monday, the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way estimates that default could cost nearly 700,000 jobs, 1 percent of gross domestic product and $8,816 from the average 401(k). Unfortunately, undoing the damage of such an event would be difficult — just like any borrower, a stain on the country’s credit history will be difficult to speedily erase.

There is a very important message to be derived from this article and the video that is linked to it.

If the countries of Africa and specially Libya were thinking of going to gold for the exchange of oil instead of dollars it is important to investors to consider the purchase of gold and silver coins to protect some of your assets in the event that the dollar looses its monetary value as an exchange currency.

Nando

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/may2011/rauld512-3.htm

Raul D  (12 May 2011)
“Black Gold“

Greetings Doves

http://www.youtube.com/user/RussiaToday#p/u/43/GuqZfaj34nc

Black Gold the real reason for NATO’s intervention in Libya. Gaddafi was trying to bring down the American dollar, and he’s being made an example of to others who goes against the west nations.

Nation will rise against nation, wars and rumors of wars signs of bith pangs just before the church leaves

Blessings Raul D