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Archive for February 2020

Feb 29, 2020 A sober analysis of the risks coming from the Covid-19 virus

Please read this article that presents data that make it logical the final conclusion they arrive at.

Editor’s note: Everyone assumes the Federal Reserve will ride to the market’s rescue if it continues to drop. But today, Charles Hugh Smith shows you why he believes the Fed will stand pat — and why it would even welcome a crash.

Charles Hugh SmithDear Reader,

A very convenient conviction is rising in the panicked financial markets that the Federal Reserve will “save the market” from a COVID-19 collapse. But they won’t.

“Buy-the-dip” punters are placing bets on the belief the Fed can’t possibly let the current bubble pop.

Oh yes they can and yes they will. Why?

It’s about control. Here’s what I mean…

Just as the Fed gets panicky if interest rates start getting away from its control, the Fed also gets nervous when its speculative bubbles get away from it, even though it causes them in the first place.

When speculators no longer fear a downturn because of their faith in eventual Fed “saves,” the Fed has lost control. And that’s not what the Fed wants.

The COVID-19 pandemic is actually a godsend to the Fed.

To reestablish control, the Fed must let the current euphoric faith in its “guarantee” to rescue markets crash to Earth.

The Fed’s foolish but not stupid. They understand speculative bubbles always pop, so the COVID-19 pandemic is just the excuse they needed to let the air out of the current grossly unsustainable bubble.

All bubbles pop. That leaves the Fed with an unsavory choice: Either be viewed as responsible for the bubble bursting or engineer some fall guy to take the blame and give the Fed cover for its incompetence.

It’s also instructive to note, as many have, that the Fed enters this global recession with very little policy ammo.

Interest rates are so near zero already that a couple of rate cuts will do very little good in the real economy.

Panicky punters expect the Fed to blow its wad on saving their hides, but what would that leave the Fed for the real recession that’s just getting underway? Nothing. If the Fed starts cutting now, it’ll have nothing left.

Would the Fed be so shortsighted and stupid as to blow their last ammo just to save speculatively insane punters from the inevitable bursting of a moral hazard-driven bubble?

In a word, no.

What about the possibility of negative interest rates?

Japan and Europe have effectively proven that negative interest rates do essentially nothing to boost spending in the real economy.

All negative interest rates accomplished was further boosting speculative bubbles and wealth inequality, which threatens to destabilize the social order — something the Fed cannot control.

The reality is the COVID-19 pandemic promises to be much more consequential than the run-of-the-mill financial excesses of the past 20 years, but we already know one important thing:

All bubbles pop.

We also know this: The greater the excesses, speculative euphoria and moral hazard, the greater the reversal.

Below, I show you why there’s an economic cataclysm ahead. And the Fed can’t do a thing about it. Read on.

Regards,

Charles Hugh Smith
for The Daily Reckoning

The Daily Reckoning Presents: “The economic storm hasn’t passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane”…

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The Economic Cataclysm

By Charles Hugh Smith

Charles Hugh SmithDear Reader,

To understand the economic cataclysm ahead, do the math. Those expecting the Covid-19 pandemic to leave the U.S. economy untouched are implicitly making these preposterously unlikely claims:

1. China will resume full pre-pandemic production and shipping within the next two weeks.

2. Chinese consumers will resume borrowing and spending at pre-pandemic rates in a few weeks.

3. Every factory and every worker in China will resume full pre-pandemic production without any permanent closures or disruptions.

4. Corporate America’s just-in-time inventories will magically expand to cover weeks or months of supply chain disruption.

5. Not a single one of the thousands of people who flew direct from Wuhan to the U.S. in January is an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus who escaped detection at the airport.

6. Not a single one of the thousands of people who flew from China to the U.S. in February is an asymptomatic carrier of the coronavirus.

7. Not a single one of the thousands of people who are in self-quarantine broke the quarantine to go to Safeway for milk and eggs.

8. Not a single person who came down with Covid-19 after arriving in the U.S. feared being deported so they did not go to a hospital and are therefore unknown to authorities.

9. Even though U.S. officials have only tested a relative handful of the thousands of people who came from Covid-19 hotspots in China, they caught every single asymptomatic carrier.

10. Not a single asymptomatic carrier caught a flight from China to Southeast Asia and then promptly boarded a flight for the U.S.

I could go on but you get the picture: an extremely contagious pathogen that is spread by carriers who don’t know they have the virus to people who then infect others in a rapidly expanding circle has been completely controlled by U.S. authorities who haven’t tested or even tracked tens of thousands of potential carriers in the U.S.

These same authorities are quick to claim the risk of Covid-19 spreading in the U.S. is low even as the 14 infected people they put on a plane ended up infecting 25 passengers on the flight.

These same authorities tried to transfer quarantined people to a rundown facility in Costa Mesa CA that was not suitable for quarantine, forcing the city to file a lawsuit to stop the transfer.

Do these actions instill unwavering confidence in the official U.S. response? You must be joking.

Do the math. The coronavirus is already in the U.S. but authorities have no way to track it due to its spread by asymptomatic carriers. People who don’t even know they have the virus are flying to intermediate airports outside China and then catching flights to the U.S.

None of the known characteristics of the virus support the confidence being projected by authorities. The tests are not reliable, few are being tested, carriers can’t be detected because they don’t have any symptoms, the virus is highly contagious, thousands of potential carriers continue to arrive in the U.S., etc. etc. etc.

The network of global travel remains intact. Removing a few nodes (Wuhan, etc.) does not reduce the entire network’s connectedness that enables the rapid and invisible spread of the virus.

Second, what authorities call over-reaction is simply prudent risk management. When an abstract pandemic becomes real, shelves are emptied and streets are deserted. It doesn’t take thousands of cases to trigger a dramatic reduction in the willingness to mix with crowds of strangers. A relative handful of cases is enough to be consequential.

Human psychology is exquisitely attuned to risk once it moves from abstraction to reality. Why take a chance unless absolutely necessary? For many people, the first handful of local cases will be enough to cancel all exposure to optional public gatherings: cafes, bistros, theaters, concerts, etc.

But many of the new jobs created in the U.S. economy over the past decade are in the food and beverage services sector, the sector that is immediately impacted when people decide to lower their risk by staying home rather than going out to crowded restaurants, theaters, bars, etc.

Many of these establishments are hanging on by a thread due to soaring rents, taxes, fees, healthcare and wages. Many of the employees are also hanging on by a thread, only making rent if they collect big tips.

All the official reassurances won’t be worth a bucket of warm spit. After being assured the risk of the virus spreading in North America was “low,” the arrival of the virus will destroy trust in official assurances. People will awaken to the need to control their own risk factors themselves. And as empty streets and shelves attest, people taking charge of risk has dire economic consequences.

Central banks can borrow money into existence but they can’t replace lost income. A significant percentage of America’s food and beverage establishments are financially precarious, and their exhausted owners are burned out by the stresses of keeping their business afloat as costs continue rising. The initial financial hit as people reduce their public exposure will be more than enough to cause many to close their doors forever.

As small businesses fold, local tax revenues crater, triggering fiscal crises in local government budgets dependent on ever-higher tax and fee revenues.

A significant percentage of America’s borrowers are financially precarious, one paycheck or unexpected expense away from defaulting on student loans, subprime auto loans, credit card payments, etc.

A significant percentage of America’s corporations are financially precarious, dependent on expanding debt and rising cash flow to service their expanding debt load. Any hit to their revenues will trigger defaults that will then unleash second-order effects in the global financial system.

The global economy is so dependent on speculative euphoria, leverage and debt that any external shock will tip it over the cliff. The U.S. economy is far more precarious than advertised as well.

The economic storm hasn’t passed; the false calm is only the eye of the financial hurricane.

Regards,

Charles Hugh Smith
for The Daily Reckoning

Written by twelvebooks

February 29, 2020 at 6:53 pm

Feb 29, 2020 The Final and Terminal Generations before the Second Coming

We are in the final generation to the end of the age and the second coming. Many of this generation will enter the Apocalypse to become the terminal generation.

Nando

 

Feb 20, 2020 The coming great deception and the 7 years of Tribulation

The world is accelerating its march with destruction and people sense it but can not put their finger on it.

If a person is not a Christian and has no knowledge of the Bible the coming events will seam horrible and a subject of nightmares.

The world will be divided by force into those who will follow evil and those who follow the God that created the Universe and all that is in it.

The link to this video will give the viewer an inkling of what is to come. In this blog you can find a link to Bibles in many alnguages under Biblos and multi.

Nando

Nando

Feb 9, 2020 Is Trump peace plan an abomination to the Lord Jesus Christ?

Thanks to Fay we have a link to this beyond very good sermon by Arab Christian pastor of Hawaii about the new Trump peace plan.

It appears that this plan was hatch and done by Trumps son in law Kushner as mentioned by J D Faraq. Does the president know the full implications of this proposed peace plan?

J D Faraq makes a brilliant Spirit inspired breakdown to the salient parts of this plan and in doing so he shreds the plan from God’s point of view using the Word as his sword.

This sermon opens up questions about Trump and the way God has used him for His end time plans. At this point it is difficult to reason why Trump did this.

Nando

http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/feb2020/fay29-1.htm

Nando

Fay (9 Feb 2020)
POWERFUL Sermon from Pastor JD Farag.


I’m sure most of you caught this already. For those who missed it, I have linked it below. Pastor JD runs through the so-called Peace Plan and reveals the horrible reality of what it entails. It was never going to be good, let’s face it. But, it’s the deception behind it that really gets me. It was presented to the world as “Jerusalem will remain the undivided capital of Israel” when the reality is the total opposite.
Pastor JD goes into how it has always been Satan’s plan to exterminate the Jewish people. He used Herod – he used Hitler and now he’s going to give it another try. Almighty God has an everlasting covenant with the Jewish people. Everlasting means everlasting. Just as He has an everlasting covenant with the Jewish people, He has an everlasting covenant with Christians too. As Pastor JD points out – how secure can we feel that our covenant is everlasting if God reneges on His everlasting covenant with the Jewish people? This is a corker of a sermon and one not to be missed.
Hitler used propaganda to set the stage for the demonic hatred of the Jewish people. This propaganda set the stage for Kristallnacht and led to the extermination of millions of people. 6 million of whom were Jewish. We have entered perilous times because that same propaganda is doing the rounds again. Even making it’s way on to Bible believing Christian websites. What has happened before, will happen again. There is nothing new under the sun. Ecclesiastes 1:9. Watch the propaganda regarding the Holocaust. Antisemites claim it never happened or was “greatly exaggerated”. In spite of ALL the evidence, certain people buy into this grotesque lie. Hey – people will believe what they want to believe and trying to reason with this mind-set is akin to bashing one’s head against a brick wall. It won’t change a thing.
Pastor JD brought up King Solomon. 1 Kings 3. He also brought up what Solomon prayed for. Wisdom. If we pray for anything that will glorify Almighty God – He will grant it. I prayed for help and support regarding Rick Wiles and his channel TruNews. Almighty God provided me with all the support I needed. Rick Wiles and TruNews hit mainstream media the very next day!! And …for all the wrong reasons.
All praise and Glory and thanks to Almighty God. In Jesus’ beloved Name.

Bible Prophecy Update – February 2nd, 2020

Nando